Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 3/1/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 1, 2024

Updated Mar 1, 2024 7:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has put up 27.0 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA in this category: 98th percentile.
Jayson Tatum has attempted 8.4 three-point shots per game this year, placing him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the league, Jayson Tatum slots into the 95th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 35.2 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
With respect to offense, the Celtics's excellent 123.2 points per game settles in as the 2nd-highest in the league over the last 5 games.
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have totaled 16.0 field goal attempts per game (30th-highest in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks, creating a good matchup.

Favors Under

The 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Celtics.
The Celtics rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The Dallas Mavericks have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (11.3) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Relative to last season's 8.1 rate, Jayson Tatum's number of foul shot attempts has diminished this season to 6.8 foul shot attempts per game.