Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 27, 2024 8:35 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has logged 26.9 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 98th percentile.
Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum lands in the 98th percentile for 3-point attempts, putting up 8.4 per game this year.
Jayson Tatum has played 35.2 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 40.8% on threes (27th-best in the league) vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, branding this as a positive matchup.
The Celtics rank as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Celtics have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 10th-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should decrease possessions for the Celtics.
Over the last 25 games, their opposition has grabbed 11.7 offensive rebounds per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the 76ers (preserving possessions that can create further opportunities for offense).
Jayson Tatum has attempted a mere 6.7 foul shots per game this season, significantly lower than his 8.1 mark last season.
In regard to drawing fouls, the Boston Celtics's feeble 17.1 free throws per game rates worst in the NBA over the last 10 games.