Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Feb 11, 2024

Updated Feb 11, 2024 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has posted 26.7 points per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 97th percentile -- one of the best in the league in this category.
Jayson Tatum has attempted 10.8 treys per game over the last 5 games, 2.4 more than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Jayson Tatum has tallied 35.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 98th percentile.
The matchup against Miami is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat are at home, opposing starting PFs have shot for the 30th-highest three rate in the league this year (46.4%).
The Celtics have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home city, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Celtics.
The matchup against the Miami Heat may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a mere 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (13th-least in the NBA).
Jayson Tatum will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road usually lowers player production in all stat categories.