Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 11/26/2023

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks · Nov 26, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Jayson Tatum measures in the 97th percentile, posting an enormous 27.8 points per game this year.
Jayson Tatum has attempted 9.3 threes per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 8.7 rate last season.
Jayson Tatum has been on the court for 34.8 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league while at home this year.
The matchup against the Hawks is a favorable one; they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs since the start of last season (17.5).

Favors Under

The 5th-least up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Celtics.
The Celtics have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are away from home, opposing squads have grabbed 11.7 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks (maintaining possessions that can bring about extra chances for offense).
Jayson Tatum has attempted a lowly 6.3 free throws per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 8.1 rate last year.
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 2.2 foul shots per game (8th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, making it tough to get to the foul line.

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