Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Orlando Magic vs Boston Celtics · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 7:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has sunk a whopping 10.6 field goals per game this year, quite a bit more than his 9.3 mark last year.
Jayson Tatum has averaged 36.4 minutes per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 99th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup against the Orlando Magic is a strong one for threes; opposing starting SFs have tallied the 25th-most three-pointers per game in the league this year (2.1).
The Orlando Magic have played at the 7th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home court, which ought to increase opportunities for the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 9 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jayson Tatum has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game away from home this year, putting him in the 76th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to getting T'ed up.
When it comes to three-point shots, the Boston Celtics's poor 33.5% rate of converted threes with the home court advantage rates 6th-lowest in the league this year.
The 4th-most sluggish tempo home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.
Jayson Tatum has made a measly 4.7 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 6.9 mark last season.
This year when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) against the Magic, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.