Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 11/22/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 22, 2023

Updated Nov 22, 2023 11:50 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has successfully made a whopping 42.7% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, a sizeable increase from his 33.2 rate last year.
Jayson Tatum has attempted 8.9 threes per game this year, ranking in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Jayson Tatum has tallied 34.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 93rd percentile.
In terms of scoring, the Boston Celtics's excellent 125.2 points per game at home settles in as the 2nd-most in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Bucks is a tough one for threes; the other team has put up the 6th-lowest three percentage in the league this year (34.4%).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Milwaukee is a difficult one; when the Bucks are the visiting squad, they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs this year (13.5).
The least up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Without the home court advantage, the Bucks have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.1) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Bucks is a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.3 free throws per game this year (15th-least in the league).