Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 11/20/2023

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics · Nov 20, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 11:57 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum ranks in the 96th percentile, logging a whopping 26.6 points per game when playing at home this year.
In comparison to last year's 33.2% rate, Jayson Tatum's 3-point ability has risen this year to 42.4%.
Jayson Tatum has tallied 35.9 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 98th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 56.9% on field goals (30th-best in the league) against the Hornets, identifying this as a good matchup.
The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 8 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Celtics.
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Boston Celtics.
Jayson Tatum has attempted a measly 5.3 foul shots per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 8.1 mark last year.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at getting to the foul line while playing on the road: 6th-worst in the league this year, averaging a lowly 20.8 free throws per game.
Jayson Tatum will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road generally worsens stat production in all facets of the game.

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