Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 5/19/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 19, 2023

Updated May 19, 2023 8:11 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has attempted 21.1 field goals per game this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among all players in the league.
Jayson Tatum has tallied 36.4 minutes per game at home this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a good one; they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.7).
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jayson Tatum has accumulated 0.1 technical fouls per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 95th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled when it comes to technicals.
The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).