Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 1/5/2023

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics · Jan 5, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has averaged a whopping 30.8 points per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 26.6 points per game last year.
Jayson Tatum has attempted 21.3 shots from the field per game this year, placing him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Jayson Tatum has attempted 8.6 foul shots per game this season, a big improvement over his 6.4 rate last season.
Jayson Tatum has been on the court for 36.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 99th percentile.
The Boston Celtics have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league this year without the home court advantage.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a tough one for scoring; opposing teams have compiled the 8th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (48.1%).
The Boston Celtics rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (which also eliminates additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Mavericks.
Jayson Tatum will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally decreases player performance in all stat categories.

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