Jaylin Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 3/23/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jaylin Williams

F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

LA Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Mar 23, 2023

Updated Mar 23, 2023 9:46 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylin Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylin Williams has converted 48.6% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games on the road, 6.3% higher than he's sunk overall this season on the road.
Jaylin Williams has successfully made 54.2% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games on the road, 18.6% higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year on the road.
The matchup against the Clippers is a good one; they have given up the 25th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting Cs this year (15.3).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jaylin Williams has averaged 3.5 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.2 more than he's averaged over the course of the season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the least efficient shooting team in the league over the last 25 games without the home court advantage.
The Clippers have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Thunder.
On their home court, the Clippers have given up the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.6) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
Jaylin Williams will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road generally decreases player production in all stat categories.