Jaylen Nowell Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jaylen Nowell

G · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:09 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Nowell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+106/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylen Nowell has attempted 9.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 2.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year at home.
Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have averaged 34.1% on three-pointers (6th-lowest in the league) against the Mavericks, creating a difficult matchup.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing squads have attempted a measly 21.1 foul shots per game this year (8th-least in the NBA).

Favors Under

Jaylen Nowell has sunk 16.7% of his three-pointers on his home court this year, ranking him in the 19th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the league, Jaylen Nowell places in the 78th percentile for technical fouls, logging a massive 0.0 fouls per game while playing on the road this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The slowest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has brought down 12.2 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (saving possessions that can bring about bonus chances for offense).