Jaren Jackson Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jaren Jackson Jr.

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies · Dec 26, 2023

Updated Dec 27, 2023 1:09 AM EST

Analysis

Jaren Jackson Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-148/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaren Jackson Jr. has tallied 21.4 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league by this metric: 89th percentile.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has attempted 5.0 threes per game this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Among all players in the league, Jaren Jackson Jr. ranks in the 77th percentile for playing time, posting an enormous 30.0 minutes per game away from his home court this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 6th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games as the road team.
The Pelicans have played at the 7th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Memphis Grizzlies.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Jaren Jackson Jr. lands in the 96th percentile for personal fouls, posting an enormous 3.3 fouls per game on the road this year.
When it comes to scoring, the Memphis Grizzlies's subpar 107.0 points per game places fewest in the league this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 3.4 3-point attempts per game (11th-fewest in the NBA) against the New Orleans Pelicans, branding this as a challenging matchup.
Over the last 15 games when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have come down with 12.1 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans (preserving possessions that can spark extra opportunities for offense).
Jaren Jackson Jr. will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces stat production across the board.