Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 7:02 PM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has attempted 16.6 field goals per game this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the league.
Out of all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray places in the 89th percentile for 3-point efficiency on the road with a remarkable 42.4% rate this year.
Jamal Murray has been on the court for 32.0 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 85th percentile.
The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a spike in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Mavericks).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 6th-best in in the league as the road team with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

The Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA as the visting team this year as it relates to three-point attempts.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled 4.6 three attempts per game (4th-fewest in the league) vs. the Mavericks, identifying this as a difficult matchup.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 25 games as the road team.
Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.9 free throws per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, struggling to get to the foul line.
Jamal Murray will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to reduce player production across the board.