Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2024

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 13, 2024

Updated Mar 14, 2024 3:02 AM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has attempted 21.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 4.5 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Jamal Murray has failed to convert 3.4 three-point shots per game this season, significantly less than his 4.1 rate last season.
Jamal Murray has played 38.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.6 more than he's played overall this season.
In terms of shooting, the Nuggets's fantastic 53.2% field goal percentage settles in as the most in the NBA over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

The matchup against Miami is a hard one; when the Miami Heat are at home, they have given up the 4th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 20 games (15.2).
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games as the road team.
The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should decrease plays for the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games when they are on the road, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, struggling to draw fouls.

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