Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2024

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Washington Wizards vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 21, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-143/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has sunk 9.4 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 more than he's converted in all games this year.
Jamal Murray has been on the court for 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.3 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season.
The matchup vs. Washington is a favorable one; when the Wizards have the home court advantage, they have given up the 27th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs this year (21.8).
The Wizards have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should raise possessions for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jamal Murray has attempted a measly 5.6 three-point shots per game this season, quite a bit less than his 6.8 rate last season.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 10th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA as the visting team this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 10 games while playing away from home.
The Wizards have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.0) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jamal Murray ought to experience a decrease in efficiency for all stats in light of playing away from home in this game.

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