Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/7/2024

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Detroit Pistons · Jan 7, 2024

Updated Jan 8, 2024 1:03 AM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has attempted 14.8 shots from the field per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 86th percentile among all players in the league.
Among all players in the league, Jamal Murray measures in the 87th percentile for three-point ability while on his home court with a an excellent 44.0% rate this year.
The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this game from competing against the 5th-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Pistons).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 10thbest in in the league with 11.4 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
This year, the other team has collected 10.0 offensive boards per game (4th-lowest in the league) against the Pistons (shortening possessions that could otherwise produce additional opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Jamal Murray has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA when it comes to technicals (95th percentile).
The matchup vs. Detroit is a challenging one for field goals; when the Detroit Pistons are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have put up the 14th-lowest field goal rate in the NBA this year (37.4%).
The 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Nuggets.
In terms of getting to the foul line, the Nuggets's feeble 20.4 free throw attempts per game ranks 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.

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