Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 7.8 rate, Jamal Murray's shots sunk have jumped this year to 7.8 per game.
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a positive one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Hawks are away from home, opposing starting PGs have averaged the 30th-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (7.9).
The Nuggets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 10 games (the Hawks).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 8thbest in in the NBA with 12.0 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
Over the last 8 games when they are at home, their opposition has attempted 21.1 free throws per game (10th-fewest in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, facing an uphill battle to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

Jamal Murray has attempted just 5.5 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 6.8 mark last season.
Relative to last season's 0.0 rate, Jamal Murray's technical fouls have risen this season to 0.3 per game.
The Nuggets check in as the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the league when playing on the road this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA while at home this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have nabbed 13.6 offensive boards per game (2nd-most in the NBA) vs. the Hawks (preserving possessions that can spark bonus opportunities for offense).

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