Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 11/3/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 3, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 12:53 AM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray comes in at the 89th percentile for shots taken playing at home, registering 16.8 per game since the start of last season.
Among all players in the league, Jamal Murray places in the 95th percentile for three-pointers hit playing at home, compiling 2.7 per game since the start of last season.
Jamal Murray has averaged 33.8 minutes per game when playing on the road since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 10th-highest scoring offense in the league away from their home court since the start of last season.
Jamal Murray will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court generally increases stat production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are at home, opposing squads have averaged 49.1% on field goal attempts (4th-best in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, resulting in a favorable matchup.
Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have posted 15.9 points per game (14th-lowest in the league) against the Mavericks, resulting in a difficult matchup for offensive output.
The 7th-slowest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Nuggets grade out 5thworst in in the league while playing at home with a mere 8.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Since the start of last season when they are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.0 foul shots per game (12th-lowest in the league) against the Mavericks, struggling to draw fouls.