Jamal Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 6/9/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Jun 9, 2023

Updated Jun 10, 2023 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has converted 11.0 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 3.1 higher than he's put through the net overall this year.
Jamal Murray has played 39.8 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.9 higher than he's played in all games this year.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from home.
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Jamal Murray has sunk 4.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.8 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year without the home court advantage.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Heat is a difficult one for scoring; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least baskets per game in the NBA this year (5.9).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a tough one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 2.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games (7th-least in the league).