Jamal Murray Assists - Player Prop Bet 4/23/2023

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Assists

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · Apr 23, 2023

Updated Apr 23, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-128/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has tallied 7.0 assists per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 higher than he's tallied in all games this year.
Jamal Murray has averaged 32.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 88th percentile.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jamal Murray has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing away from home.
The Timberwolves have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Nuggets.
The Timberwolves have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jamal Murray will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens player production across the board.

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