Jamal Murray Assists - Player Prop Bet 4/19/2023

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Jamal Murray

NBA · Player Props

Jamal Murray

G · Denver Nuggets

Assists

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 19, 2023

Updated Apr 20, 2023 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jamal Murray Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jamal Murray has averaged 7.7 assists per game over the last 15 games while playing at home, 1.2 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year at home.
Jamal Murray has played 32.3 minutes per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the league this year, which should raise opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jamal Murray will possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court generally improves player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The Timberwolves have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

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