Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/1/2025

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Jalen Duren

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks · May 1, 2025

Updated May 1, 2025 11:33 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last year's 63.2% rate, Jalen Duren's shooting effectiveness has increased this year to 69.2%.
Jalen Duren has averaged 33.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.5 higher than he's averaged overall this year.
The matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns is a strong one for field goals; when Towns is playing on the road fellow starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a monstrous 60.1% of their shots from the field (100th percentile).
The Pistons have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing at home.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons rank 9th-best in in the league while at home with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Favors Under

Jalen Duren has averaged 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's averaged in all games this year.
The Detroit Pistons check in as the 10th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while playing at home this year.
The Knicks have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo tempo in the league away from their home city this year, which should reduce possessions for the Detroit Pistons.
Relative to last season's 76.4% mark, Jalen Duren's foul-shot effectiveness has been reduced this season to 68.9%.
The matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns is a difficult one for drawing fouls; when guarding fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 2.1 foul shots per game (13th percentile).

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