Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 2/26/2025

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Jalen Duren

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics · Feb 26, 2025

Updated Feb 27, 2025 4:04 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Duren has converted 6.0 buckets per game over the last 10 games, 1.4 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
The Pistons have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Detroit Pistons check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jalen Duren has converted 3.0 foul shots per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.1 more than he's made over the course of the year while at home.
Jalen Duren will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home usually improves player production across the board.

Favors Under

Jalen Duren has averaged 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (98th percentile).
In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Detroit Pistons's feeble 12.2 made threes per game when playing at home places 3rd-lowest in the league this year.
The rate of shots from downtown drained against Kristaps Porzingis has been quite low (15.0%) when he is away from his home court and squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (10th percentile).
The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should reduce plays for the Pistons.

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