Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons · Jan 29, 2025

Updated Jan 29, 2025 11:35 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Duren has made 6.0 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 more than he's converted over the course of the year.
The 6th-quickest pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Detroit Pistons.
The Pacers have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Detroit Pistons.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons rank 6th-best in in the league without the home court advantage with 11.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 24 games.
The matchup against Myles Turner is a good one for getting to the foul line; when Turner is playing at home other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a massive 3.7 foul shots per game (79th percentile).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Jalen Duren slots into the 5th percentile for three-point efficiency with an unimpressive 0.0% rate since the start of last season.
Among all players in the league, Jalen Duren lands in the 98th percentile for personal fouls, tallying an enormous 3.3 fouls per game this year.
The showdown with Myles Turner ranks in the 17th percentile with the opposing team's starting Cs scoring just 21.8% of their three-point shots this year when they are away from home.
As a team, the Detroit Pistons have been bad at getting to the charity stripe when playing on the road: worst in the league this year, drawing a mere 18.7 foul shots per game.
Jalen Duren will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally reduces stat production for all stats.