Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/6/2025

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Jalen Duren

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers · Jan 6, 2025

Updated Jan 7, 2025 4:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pistons have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games while at home.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons rank 8th-best in in the NBA on their home court with 11.3 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
The number of fouls drawn by other starting Cs against Deandre Ayton has been quite high (3.6 free throw attempts per game) when squaring off against other starting Cs this year (83rd percentile).
Jalen Duren stands to see a spike in effectiveness for all stats in light of controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Jalen Duren has converted 72.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 5.8% lower than he's made overall this year while playing at home.
Jalen Duren has committed 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 1.1 more than he's committed overall this year at home.
In regard to scoring, the Detroit Pistons's subpar 110.4 points per game playing at home comes in as the 8th-fewest in the league this year.
The showdown with Deandre Ayton measures in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the opposing team's starting Cs registering only 11.4 points per game this year when they are on their home court.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which should reduce possessions for the Pistons.

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