Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2024

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz · Jan 20, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 1:07 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has failed to convert 2.7 treys per game this year, significantly lower than his 3.4 mark last year.
Jabari Smith Jr. has tallied 30.7 minutes per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 80th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 2.4 threes per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Jazz, resulting in a positive matchup.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 10 games playing at home.
The Rockets will likely see a spike in opportunities today from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Utah Jazz).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jabari Smith Jr. rates in the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 2.5 fouls per game while at home this year.
As it relates to offense, the Rockets's unimpressive 113.6 points per game while on their home court comes in as the 7th-lowest in the league over the last 15 games.
Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, opposing teams have snagged 12.1 offensive boards per game (2nd-most in the NBA) vs. the Jazz (maintaining possessions that can result in extra chances for offense).

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