Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:14 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last season's 27.6% mark, Jabari Smith Jr.'s 3-point effectiveness has spiked this season to 52.0%.
In regard to treys, the Houston Rockets's terrific 39.0% rate of sunk threes places 5th-highest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. San Antonio is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Spurs are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled the 29th-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.3).
The Rockets will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 10 games (the Spurs).
On their home court, the Spurs have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jabari Smith Jr. has been called for 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league (78th percentile).
The 3rd-slowest pace home team in the NBA this year has been the Rockets.
The Houston Rockets have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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