Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/20/2023

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets · Nov 20, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 3:12 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last year's 11.7 rate, Jabari Smith Jr.'s shots taken have spiked this year to 11.8 per game.
In contrast to last season's 30.4 clip, Jabari Smith Jr.'s playing time has surged this season to 31.5 minutes per game.
This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 14.6 shot attempts per game (27th-most in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, creating a strong matchup.
The Warriors have played at the 9th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games in their home city, which should increase opportunities for the Houston Rockets.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 3.4 rate, Jabari Smith Jr.'s off the mark three-pointers have surged this year to 4.3 per game.
Compared to last season's 2.8 rate, Jabari Smith Jr.'s personal fouls per game have jumped this season to 4.8.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the NBA as the away team this year.
The Houston Rockets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 7 games when they are on their home court, opposing clubs have snagged 10.9 offensive rebounds per game (7th-most in the league) against the Warriors (retaining possessions that can bring about more opportunities for offense).

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