Jabari Smith Jr. Assists - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2024

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Assists

Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz · Jan 20, 2024

Updated Jan 20, 2024 7:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has tallied 30.7 minutes per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 80th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 10 games playing at home.
The Rockets will likely see a spike in opportunities today from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Utah Jazz).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Houston Rockets rank 9thbest in in the NBA with 11.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Jabari Smith Jr. stands to see a spike in effectiveness in all stat categories on account of having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jabari Smith Jr. rates in the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 2.5 fouls per game while at home this year.
Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, opposing teams have snagged 12.1 offensive boards per game (2nd-most in the NBA) vs. the Jazz (maintaining possessions that can result in extra chances for offense).

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