Ja Morant Points - Player Prop Bet 4/22/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Ja Morant

G · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies · Apr 22, 2023

Updated Apr 22, 2023 10:11 PM EST

Analysis

Ja Morant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ja Morant has attempted 19.8 field goals per game this year, placing him in the 97th percentile out of all players in the league.
Ja Morant has averaged 31.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 84th percentile.
The matchup vs. the Lakers is a positive one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have tallied the 30th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (16.1).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage.
The Lakers have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to boost plays for the Grizzlies.

Favors Under

Ja Morant has attempted and missed 2.8 three-point attempts per game while on the road this year, putting him in the company of the worst players in the NBA by this metric: 75th percentile for misses on the road.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 5th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
The Lakers have allowed the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
Ja Morant will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lowers player performance in all stat categories.