Ja Morant Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Ja Morant

G · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 27, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 10:41 AM EST

Analysis

Ja Morant Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ja Morant has posted 26.9 points per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- among the league's best by this standard.
Ja Morant has attempted 20.3 shots per game while playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Ja Morant has attempted 9.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.2 higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.
Ja Morant has been on the court for 31.8 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 84th percentile.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (which also produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Timberwolves have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 25 games while playing at home (which also eliminates additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Timberwolves is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; opposing squads have attempted a mere 26.2 foul shots per game when playing at home this year (least in the league).
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 8th-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 15 games as it relates to three-point attempts.
The Grizzlies have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 10 games on their home court, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Timberwolves.
The matchup against the Timberwolves is a hard one; they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SFs over the last 10 games (11.6).