Ja Morant Assists - Player Prop Bet 4/3/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Ja Morant

G · Memphis Grizzlies

Assists

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Apr 3, 2025

Updated Apr 3, 2025 10:04 PM EST

Analysis

Ja Morant Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ja Morant has compiled 7.4 assists per game this year, putting him among the best players in the league by this standard: 99th percentile.
Ja Morant has tallied 36.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 5.6 more than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road.
The fastest pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year has been the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Ja Morant has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.0 more than he's committed in all games this year on the road.
The Grizzlies will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities today from sharing the court with the least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Heat).
Ja Morant will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to worsen player performance in all facets of the game.