Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 11/6/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Nov 6, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 1:37 AM EST

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-fastest tempo offense in the NBA this year has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, opposing teams have brought down 9.9 offensive boards per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Nuggets (reducing possessions that could otherwise generate more opportunities for offense).
Herbert Jones has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.3% more than he's converted in all games this year.
As a team, the Pelicans have been very successful at drawing fouls as the home team: 10th-best in the NBA since the start of last season, tallying 24.5 foul shot attempts per game.
This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 4.5 free throws per game (24th-most in the league) against the Nuggets, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Herbert Jones measures in the 94th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a whopping 3.1 fouls per game while on his home court since the start of last season.
The Pelicans have been the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a hard one for 3-point shots; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 15th-least 3-point shots per game in the league since the start of last season (1.8).
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the {OPP_TEAM}.
Herbert Jones will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduce player performance across the board.