Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 4/7/2023

NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks · Apr 7, 2023

Updated Apr 8, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Herbert Jones has converted 84.5% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 50.5% more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this season.
Herbert Jones has averaged 34.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.2 more than he's averaged overall this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The matchup against New York is a positive one; when the Knicks are on the road, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs over the last 5 games (24.7).
The Knicks have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.2) in the league to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Herbert Jones has tallied 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league (96th percentile).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Knicks have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Pelicans.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against New York is a hard one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 2.2 foul shots per game this year when the Knicks are on the road (15th-least in the NBA).