Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2023

NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 29, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Herbert Jones has sunk 62.7% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games on the road, 11.5% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season without the home court advantage.
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing away from home this year (which can also create new chances for scoring and assists).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the NBA while playing away from home this year.
The Pelicans have played at the 2nd-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should lead to increased possessions for the Bucks.
The matchup against the Bucks may be a good one for getting to the foul line; their opposition have attempted an enormous 21.1 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (2nd-most in the league).

Favors Under

Herbert Jones has converted a measly 74.1% of his free throws this year, a significant dropoff from his 82.0 mark last year.
Herbert Jones has been called for 3.1 personal fouls per game when playing on the road this year, putting him in the 94th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Bucks have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (13.2) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 5 games when playing at home (which also eliminates additional chances for scoring and assists).
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the least aggressive offense in the league while playing on the road this year when it comes to attempts from beyond the arc.
Herbert Jones will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces stat production in all stat categories.