Harrison Barnes Points - Player Prop Bet 2/22/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Harrison Barnes

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 22, 2024

Updated Feb 22, 2024 10:45 PM EST

Analysis

Harrison Barnes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Harrison Barnes has attempted 6.3 shots from downtown per game over the last 15 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Among all players in the league, Harrison Barnes lands in the 75th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 29.4 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
As it relates to shooting, the Kings's excellent 122.6 points per game with the home court advantage places 4th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Kings have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.
The Kings will likely see an increase in plays in this game from facing the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Spurs).

Favors Under

This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting SFs have registered 8.6 points per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) against the Spurs, branding this as a difficult matchup for offensive production.
The Kings rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the Spurs have given up the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (12.1) in the NBA to the other team over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The clash with Julian Champagnie in terms of getting to the charity stripe slots into the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting SFs attempting a mere 2.3 free throws per game this year.