Harrison Barnes Points - Player Prop Bet 1/5/2024

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Harrison Barnes

NBA · Player Props

Harrison Barnes

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Toronto Raptors · Jan 5, 2024

Updated Jan 6, 2024 2:55 AM EST

Analysis

Harrison Barnes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Harrison Barnes has made 51.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games at home, 10.8% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season playing at home.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 23.9 points per game (30th-most in the NBA) vs. the Raptors, creating a positive matchup for offensive output.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 7th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should boost plays for the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games when they are on their home court, opposing teams have collected 8.2 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors (minimizing possessions that could otherwise lead to added chances for offense).

Favors Under

Harrison Barnes has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 0.9 more than he's committed in all games this year at home.
The Kings have played at the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.

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