Harrison Barnes Points - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2023

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Harrison Barnes

NBA · Player Props

Harrison Barnes

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 19, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Harrison Barnes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Harrison Barnes has sunk a terrific 2.7 3-point shots per game this year, a big improvement over his 1.5 mark last year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Harrison Barnes ranks in the 21st percentile for personal fouls, posting a measly 1.2 fouls per game without the home court advantage this year.
The matchup against Dallas is a positive one; when the Mavericks are the visiting team, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (21.5).
The Kings have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court.
The Kings are expected to see a rise in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Favors Under

In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Sacramento Kings's poor 34.6% rate of drained threes measures as the 8th-lowest in the NBA this year.
While at home, the Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.2) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Harrison Barnes will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling generally decreases stat production for all stats.

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