Grayson Allen Points - Player Prop Bet 1/11/2024

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Grayson Allen

NBA · Player Props

Grayson Allen

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns · Jan 11, 2024

Updated Jan 12, 2024 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Grayson Allen Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Grayson Allen has successfully made 3.5 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 0.9 higher than he's sunk over the course of the season.
Grayson Allen has played 33.4 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 87th percentile.
The matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting SFs have averaged the 30th-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).
The Suns are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from competing against the speediest pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).
The Phoenix Suns check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league as the away team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Suns rank as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as the road team.
The 2nd-least up-tempo pace road team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Suns.
The matchup vs. the Lakers may be a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a measly 1.9 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (14th-least in the NBA).
Grayson Allen is expected to suffer a drop-off in efficiency in all stat categories due to playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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