Grayson Allen Points - Player Prop Bet 4/22/2023

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Grayson Allen

NBA · Player Props

Grayson Allen

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 22, 2023

Updated Apr 22, 2023 10:36 PM EST

Analysis

Grayson Allen Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Grayson Allen has converted 2.4 threes per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.7 higher than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year while playing on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Grayson Allen has converted 88.9% of his foul shots while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 86th percentile out of all players in the league.

Favors Under

The matchup against Miami is a hard one for scoring; when the Heat are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SGs have shot for the 14th-lowest FG% in the NBA this year (41.3%).
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Bucks.
The matchup against the Heat is a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted just 2.5 free throws per game this year (14th-least in the NBA).
Grayson Allen will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling usually lowers player production across the board.

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