Grant Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 5/29/2023

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Grant Williams

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 29, 2023

Updated May 30, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
On the road, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.4 free throws per game over the last 15 games (27th-most in the league).
Grant Williams will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home tends to improves player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Grant Williams has been called for 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.1 higher than he's been called for in all games this year.
The matchup vs. Miami is a hard one for three-pointers; when the Heat are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PFs have compiled the 12th-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (25.7%).
The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Celtics.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at drawing fouls in recent games: worst in the NBA over the last 25 games, drawing a measly 19.9 free throw attempts per game.

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