Giannis Antetokounmpo Points - Player Prop Bet 12/21/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic · Dec 21, 2023

Updated Dec 21, 2023 7:43 PM EST

Analysis

Giannis Antetokounmpo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Giannis Antetokounmpo has tallied 30.6 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the league in this category: 99th percentile.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has converted 59.4% of his shots from the field while on his home court this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among all players in the league.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has played 34.8 minutes per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 94th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
The Bucks have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games playing at home.

Favors Under

Over the last 10 games when they are at home, opposing starting PFs have logged 15.1 points per game (15th-fewest in the league) against the Magic, making this a difficult matchup for offensive effectiveness.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has attempted a measly 11.2 foul shots per game this year, significantly lower than his 12.2 rate last year.
Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 2.8 foul shots per game (10th-lowest in the NBA) against the Orlando Magic, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.