Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/16/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Mar 16, 2024

Updated Mar 16, 2024 10:21 PM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has successfully made 4.4 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.4 more than he's converted from three overall this season at home.
Fred VanVleet has played 36.1 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The matchup vs. the Cavaliers is a strong one for 3-pointers; the other team's starting PGs have posted the 2nd-highest three rate in the NBA this year (41.4%).
The Rockets have played at the 5th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Rockets grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a lowly 13.5 field goals per game this season, significantly lower than his 16.2 mark last season.
In terms of threes, the Houston Rockets's subpar 35.1% rate of converted threes rates 3rd-weakest in the league this year.
The Rockets are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).
The matchup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers may be a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.5 free throws per game over the last 15 games (least in the NBA).

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