Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 12/17/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets · Dec 17, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 7.9 shots from downtown per game this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Fred VanVleet has played 37.3 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 100th percentile.
The matchup vs. the Milwaukee Bucks is a favorable one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs this year (21.7).
The Bucks have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to raise plays for the Rockets.
Fred VanVleet has attempted 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 1.9 more than he's attempted overall this year on the road.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted just 14.1 shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 16.2 mark last season.
The 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league this year has been the Rockets.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Houston Rockets rank 10thworst in in the NBA with a mere 10.2 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 25 games, the other team has secured 12.2 offensive boards per game (most in the league) vs. the Milwaukee Bucks (continuing possessions that can result in additional chances for offense).
Fred VanVleet will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens stat production for all stats.

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