Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 11/22/2023

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies · Nov 22, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 1:04 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Fred VanVleet measures in the 97th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, putting up 8.6 per game this year.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 34.6 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The Grizzlies have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should raise plays for the Houston Rockets.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing squads have come down with 10.1 offensive rebounds per game (7th-fewest in the league) against the Memphis Grizzlies (turning over possessions that could otherwise bring about further chances for offense).
As a team, the Rockets have been great at getting to the foul line: 7th-best in the NBA since the start of last season, tallying 25.4 free throw attempts per game.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Fred VanVleet comes in at the 13th percentile for scoring ability while playing on the road with a a feeble 34.8% rate this year.
Fred VanVleet has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 0.1 more than he's committed overall this year at home.
The matchup vs. the Grizzlies is a difficult one for shots from the field; the opposition's starting PGs have averaged the 7th-least buckets per game in the NBA this year (5.6).
The 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA this year has been the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).