Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 4/12/2023

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls · Apr 12, 2023

Updated Apr 13, 2023 2:31 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 16.1 shots from the field per game this year, placing him in the 91st percentile out of all players in the league.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 35.4 minutes per game while at home this year, putting him in the 98th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The Toronto Raptors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Away from their home court, the Bulls have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Chicago may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 4.8 foul shots per game over the last 20 games when the Bulls are the visiting team (21st-most in the league).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has successfully made a mere 3.0 shots from downtown per game this year, quite a bit less than his 3.7 mark last year.
Fred VanVleet has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, ranking in the 85th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup vs. Chicago is a tough one for scoring; when the Bulls are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have posted the 15th-lowest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (39.2%).
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.