Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 4/7/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 7, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 15.9 shots from the field per game while playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among all players in the league.
Fred VanVleet has played 36.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 99th percentile.
The matchup vs. Boston is a good one for shots from the field; when the Celtics have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the 26th-most field goals per game in the league this year (7.2).
The Celtics have played at the 2nd-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should increase possessions for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has converted a lowly 3.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this season, significantly lower than his 3.7 rate last season.
Fred VanVleet has committed 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (90th percentile).
The Toronto Raptors have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Fred VanVleet will not hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road generally decreases player production in all facets of the game.

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