Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 4/2/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 2, 2023

Updated Apr 3, 2023 2:53 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 8.9 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 36.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 99th percentile.
The matchup vs. the Hornets is a favorable one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have compiled the 25th-highest field goal rate in the league this year (46.1%).
The matchup vs. Theo Maledon is a favorable one for three-point shots; when Maledon is playing at home opposing starting PGs this year, they have successfully made a massive 37.8% of their three-pointers (76th percentile).
The Hornets have played at the 5th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should increase opportunities for the Raptors.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has tallied 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 1.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year on the road.
The Toronto Raptors rank as the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games on the road.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
With the home court advantage, the Hornets have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (11.9) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium usually decreases player performance in all stat categories.