Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 2/12/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons · Feb 12, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 19.0 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.8 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 35.5 minutes per game at home this year, placing him in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 7th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Pistons have played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to raise plays for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a mere 8.6 three-point shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 9.8 rate last year.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the league at home this year.
The matchup against Killian Hayes is a hard one for shots from downtown; when Hayes is away from his home court and matched up against fellow starting PGs this year, they have successfully made just 30.5% of their treys (13th percentile).

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