Franz Wagner Points - Player Prop Bet 3/27/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Franz Wagner

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors · Mar 27, 2024

Updated Mar 27, 2024 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Franz Wagner Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Franz Wagner has made 56.7% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 8.7% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.
Franz Wagner has been on the court for 31.7 minutes per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors is a positive one for three-pointers; the other team's starting SFs have posted the highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (47.0%).
The Warriors have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games away from their home court, which ought to increase opportunities for the Orlando Magic.
Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Orlando Magic rank 9th-best in in the NBA while on their home court with 11.2 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 36.6% rate, Franz Wagner's three-point performance has regressed this year to 26.5%.
Franz Wagner has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 1.3 more than he's committed over the course of the year at home.
The Orlando Magic check in as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Orlando Magic have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 25 games.
This year, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, struggling to draw fouls.